Pendekatan ArDL dalam Menilai Pengaruh Variabel Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Anti Dumping terhadap Impor Ubin Keramik: Analisis Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang
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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel makroekonomi dan kebijakan antidumping terhadap volume impor ubin keramik dari Tiongkok ke Indonesia, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, dengan menggunakan pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Data yang digunakan berupa deret waktu bulanan dari Mei 2019 hingga Desember 2024, mencakup variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap yuan, volatilitas nilai tukar, indeks produksi industri Tiongkok, serta dua variabel dummy yang merepresentasikan kebijakan antidumping dan pandemi COVID-19. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap impor dalam jangka pendek, sedangkan volatilitas nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif signifikan dalam jangka panjang. Indeks produksi industri Tiongkok memiliki pengaruh positif signifikan dalam jangka pendek, namun tidak signifikan dalam jangka panjang. Sementara itu, kebijakan antidumping tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan baik dalam jangka pendek maupun panjang, dan pandemi COVID-19 hanya berpengaruh negatif signifikan dalam jangka panjang. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa dinamika impor ubin keramik sangat dipengaruhi oleh respons jangka waktu yang berbeda dari masing-masing faktor ekonomi dan kebijakan. Penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi empiris dalam merancang strategi proteksi industri nasional yang lebih responsif terhadap guncangan ekonomi eksternal dan kondisi pasar global.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.37531/yum.v8i3.9859
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